There are many discoveries that have occurred through serendipity, errors, and exaptation. The developments occurred accidentally and allowed for game-changing ideas that are used today and in the future. Some of these ideas have been life-changing, and there will be many more of these ideas in the future. Before discovering ideas of these changes, first, there is a need to understand the terms serendipity, errors and exaptation.

     Serendipity is when actions progress by accident and create a happy accident that can be used in a positive method. One of the most exciting ideas that have been created by serendipity is the microwave (Biddle, 2010). Percy Spencer found this discovery by accident when a candy bar was melting in his pants pocket (Biddle, 2010). The melting of the candy occurred when Spencer was around a microwave-emitting magnetron, allowing for the microwave that we use today to warm and cook our food to be created (Biddle, 2010).

     Errors or mistakes is another way method of discovering innovative ideas. One of the favorites of this would be penicillin (Donnelly, 2012). It is an antibiotic that has been life-saving for many. Penicillin was discovered by Alexander Fleming, when he left dirty Petri dishes and one of these dishes had an area of mold that was immune to the streptococcus (Donnelly, 2012). Fleming went the extra mile and created a medicine that is used today to make people well when they are sick (Donnelly, 2012).

     Exaptation is when an idea is repurposed into something new. A few examples of this come to mind, getting email on cell phones and AOL for Palm Pilot, data collection via forms and Big Data, finally Darwinism the idea that everything came from something else (Swanson, 2000). In 2000, AOL created a version of their software for Palm Pilot, and people would tether their cellphones to read and answer mail on the fly (Swanson, 2000). Same as we do today with our cell phones (Swanson, 2000).

     As seen here innovation comes from many different methods. The methods include by accident, mistake and repurposing, the three methods have been the way innovators make decisions for many years. As they are a useful method, they will be continued to be used for years to come.

Reference: 

Biddle, S. (2010, August 26). The 10 greatest (accidental) inventions of all time. Retrieved from http://www.nbcnews.com/id/38870091/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/greatest-accidental-inventions-all-time/#.WwdQz1MvyRc

Donnelly, T. (2012, August 15). 9 Brilliant Inventions Made by Mistake. Retrieved from https://www.inc.com/tim-donnelly/brilliant-failures/9-inventions-made-by-mistake.html

Swanson, T. (2000, June 28). AOL grips Palm for tix. Retrieved from http://variety.com/2000/digital/news/aol-grips-palm-for-tix-1117783141/

     We are to find something that has been predicted that came true. Of course, there are many things recently that fall into this category. The first being the world coming to an end in 2000. However, that is a very popular prediction that didn't come to be as the world did not end. However, there is the predictions that were made by Dmitri Mendeleev in 1863, that have to do with the periodic table. My daughter is a Chemistry teacher talks of this often (Sterbenz, 2013). When Mendeleev created the table, there were only 60 elements that could be predicted. When the table was created Mendeleev left 40 blank areas for future elements because he places each element in order by its atomic weight(Sterbenz, 2013).  This allowed for the positioning of the other elements. These unknown elements were able to be placed because of patterns and their various properties (Sterbenz, 2013). 

     Mendeleev found in 1875 found gallium and was able to place it within the periodic table due to the ability of Mendeleev to predict the weight and properties of future elements ("GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table"). To create the table and allow for future elements to be added to the table, Mendeleev had to create a set of rules for the placement of the elements ("GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table"). While his initial thought was to place all elements according to their atomic weight, there was one that he places according to its properties. This element was Iodine and Mendeleev place it after tellurium even though the atomic weight was not following his rules ("GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table"). In 1913, Mosely was able to prove that this decision was correct ensuring that the decisions made by Mendeleev ("GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table"). 

     There are a few different techniques that are used to assist with predictions ( ChambersSatinder K. MullickDonald D. Smith, 2014). The first one that will be discussed is qualitative. The qualitative technique is used when there is a lack of data to fill in the data logically. Mendeleev used the qualitative technique ( ChambersSatinder K. MullickDonald D. Smith, 2014). The next form of analysis is called Time series ( ChambersSatinder K. MullickDonald D. Smith, 2014). This is used by looking at historical data, and paths and similarities are found to assist with the prediction of the future. The next type of analysis is the causal model ( ChambersSatinder K. MullickDonald D. Smith, 2014). This model looks at historical data and analytics to look for the relationships to forecast the future. This type of model is very sophisticated and uses mathematics and relationships to assist with the different predictions (ChambersSatinder K. MullickDonald D. Smith, 2014).

Reference:

GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_edexcel/atomic_structure/periodictablerev2.shtml

GCSE Bitesize: The modern periodic table. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_edexcel/atomic_structure/periodictablerev2.shtml

Sterbenz, C. (2013, September 03). 16 Of The Most Impressive Predictions Of All Time. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/predictions-from-the-past-that-came-true-2013-9#from-1863-when-only-60-elements-were-known-a-russian-chemist-designed-a-periodic-table-that-predicted-the-weights-and-properties-of-the-missing-40-perfectly-4

     Before the differences of scenario planning and forecasting can be explained, there is a need to understand what each of these methods means on their own. In addition to how they may be important in today's ever-changing world of technology and innovation. As well as the pros and cons of each.

Scenario Planning

    Scenario Planning is a structured way for organizations to think about the future. A group of stakeholders will create some stories on how the future may unfold (Wade, 2012). That being said it is important for that group of people to understand that this is now a prediction as to how the future will unfold but a practical idea of what might occur. The idea of scenario planning came to fruition to assist with product development, marketing, and innovation (Wade, 2012).

     The positive side of this type of planning is that it will identify the organization's uncertainties. It will also help with developing a matrix of ideas while allowing the stakeholders to discuss these ideas. This type of planning is very similar to the SWOT analysis that many organizations are doing currently.

     As with anything, there is also a negative side for this, and this would be too many choices or scenarios, allowing the stakeholders to become confused due to the number of decisions that they can make. It also provides for similarity within the scenarios causing more confusion. When keeping the scenarios down to a minimum would rectify this situation (Wade, 2014).  

Traditional Forecasting 

    Traditional forecasting is a way to look at where the organization is today and predict where the organization will be in the future (Wade, 2012). The stakeholders use mathematical formulas to predict where the origination will be in six months, a year an even five years down the road. These perditions usually come with a plus or minus percentage. To enable the showing of the worst and best-case scenarios. The advantages of using the traditional forecasting method is it is easily understood by all. While the disadvantages are the inability to take disruption into account that may affect the scenario (Wade, 2014).  Another drawback is that it is not as flexible as the scenario planning method, giving a false sense of security for the outcome (Wade, 2014).

     Looking at both types of planning most organizations follow the traditional method. As it allows them to predict profits and make business decisions on those profits (Wade, 2014).  Whereas with scenario planning it enables the organization to be flexible with those predictions. Allowing for mistakes while keeping the organization on track to the innovative future.

Reference:

Wade, W. (2012) Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future. John Wiley & Sons P&T. VitalSource Bookshelf Online.

Wade, W. (2014). Scenario Planning – Thinking differently about future innovation. Globis Retrieved from http://e.globis.jp/article/343

     Many of the things we use on a daily basis, were not scientific discoveries that were supposed to be discovered. We take many of these discoveries for granted. Many scientific discoveries are used today that were accidents or errors when they were created. For instance, Sticky notes. Sticky notes were created by Spencer Silver trying to create an adhesive (Hiskey, 2012). The adhesive that was created was strong enough to stick to paper but also removable without tearing. Through many different trials and tribulations, the Sticky Note was discovered as a removable bookmark (Hiskey, 2012).

     Searching for something that was created from a mistake and that many may not know about. Information about the first synthetic dye was found. It was discovered in 1856 by a scientist named Henry Perkin (Nagendrappa, 2010). Henry Perkin was a research assistant for August Wilhelm von Hofmann who was trying to create a synthetic form of quinine. Quinine was used in the treatment of malaria, and Hofmann's research was to create synthetic forms of natural compounds (Nagendrappa, 2010).

     Perkin was to be running tests on a substance called aniline. The substance was derived from coal tar and is a colorless scented oil. One of the tests ran an oxidation test by adding potassium dichromate to the aniline (Nagendrappa, 2010). Upon the combination of the two chemicals, after the oxidation had completed, it produced a black residue that when the color was removed died silk purple (Nagendrappa, 2010). At the time of the experiment, Perkin called the color that was created mauve. By Perkin using coal tar to create aniline, he also found another use for coal tar other than to waterproof material.  On August 26, 1856, Perkin took out a patent for his mistake and the creation of mauveine also known as aniline purple (Perkin).
 
     Through the years Perkin modified his formula to be able to produce more dye in each batch. Rather than share this information he decided to keep this information to himself (2017).  The discovery of the change in the formula was found by Dr. Plater asked the museums owners if he could run tests on the dye (2017). While Perkin discovered dye accidentally, he was also able to improve on his work through further study to make it better. The pattern and formula perfection allowed Perkin to retire and do research at an early age (Nagendrappa, 2010).

References
Hiskey, D. (2012, December 03). Post-It Notes Were Invented By Accident. Retrieved from http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2011/11/post-it-notes-were-invented-by-accident/
 
Behzadian, M., Otaghsara, S. K., Yazdani, M., & Ignatius, J. (2012). A state-of the-art survey of TOPSIS applications. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(17), 13051-13069.
 
Nagendrappa, G. (2010). Sir William Henry Perkin: the man and his ‘mauve’. Resonance, 15(9), 779-793.
 
Perkin, W. H. Sir William Henry Perkin.